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Wayfaring Wednesday
Scenic Day Trips Off the Beaten Path; S&P 500 vs Real Estate
Sandra Burkholder
October 15, 2025
Lots of food and fun for the whole family!
Admission for the festival is $10 for adults, $5 for kids ages 4-17, and FREE for ages 3 and under
Included in the Event Fee: Corn Maze Barrel Train Hay Ride Kids Crafts Bounce House Apple Sling Shot Antique Cider Press Demo Corn Hole Access to LOTS OF Food Trucks!!
Extra Fee: UPick Apples Upick Pumpkins (paint them as well after purchase) Popcorn
Location: Kauffman Orchards: East: 48 S. Harvest Road, Bird in Hand, PA; West: 53 S. Weavertown Road, Ronks, PA
Lately, I’ve been thinking about what the long-term outcome would be if I invested extra money each year — not just in savings or stocks, but into real estate I could rent out. Since I plan to retire in about 15 years, I wanted to see which path might build more wealth and security over time.
This post walks through a hypothetical scenario: investing $50,000 per year for 10–20 years — one option in real estate, the other in the S&P 500.
🏡 Real Estate: Building Leverage and Long-Term Equity
With $50,000 a year, you could put 20% down on a $250,000 rental property every year (using financing for the rest). Rent would ideally cover your mortgage, taxes, and expenses — leaving you with little to no monthly profit at first, but growing equity as tenants pay down your loan.
Here’s how that can play out:
You invest $50K a year → $500K over 10 years.
You control about $2.5 million in property through leverage.
With average appreciation and loan paydown, your equity could grow to $1.5–2 million in 10 years.
By year 20, that could reach $3–4 million, even without huge rent increases.
Add in tax deductions (depreciation, mortgage interest, and expenses), and real estate often becomes a powerful tax shelter while building long-term wealth.
📈 S&P 500: Simplicity and Steady Growth
Now let’s compare that to simply investing the same $50,000 per year in a diversified S&P 500 index fund.
If the market performs at its long-term historical average of about 8% annually, your portfolio would likely grow to around:
$725,000 after 10 years
$1.8 million after 20 years
It’s fully liquid, requires no property management, and offers the comfort of steady compounding. However, there’s no tax shelter or leverage multiplying your gains.
⚖️ The Long-Term Takeaway
Scenario | Total Invested | 10-Year Value | 20-Year Value | Tax Benefits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Estate (Leverage) | $500,000 | ≈ $1.5–2M | ≈ $3–4M | Strong (Depreciation, Deductions) |
S&P 500 Index | $500,000 | ≈ $725K | ≈ $1.8M | Limited |
Both paths build wealth — but in different ways. The S&P 500 offers simplicity and liquidity. Real estate, while more hands-on, can produce larger long-term returns and passive income once mortgages are paid off.
💬 My Takeaway
For me, the best balance may be both — using real estate for leverage and tax benefits, while keeping stock investments for liquidity and diversification.
It’s not about chasing the highest number, but about creating security and freedom by retirement. Real estate can build wealth, while the S&P 500 quietly compounds in the background — together, they create a powerful financial foundation.
👋 Want to Explore Investment Real Estate?
If you’ve ever wondered whether real estate could be part of your own retirement or investment plan, let’s talk. I help clients compare returns, risks, and strategies to see if owning income-producing property makes sense for their goals — whether it’s one rental or a growing portfolio. Read this blog on my website.
Lancaster County Market Report – Fall 2025
If you’ve been hearing chatter about a wave of homes coming to market from baby boomers—there’s truth to it, though it’s more of a gentle tide than a tsunami. Over the next few years, we’ll likely see more listings from longtime homeowners downsizing, relocating, or passing properties to their families. But that’s only part of the story shaping Lancaster’s market right now.
📈 Local Snapshot
Median Sale Price: ~$360,000
Median List Price: ~$385,000
Days on Market: 6–12 days (still moving quickly)
Months of Inventory: ~1.5 months (a strong seller’s market)
Mortgage Rates: Around 6.3% as of October 2025
These numbers show a market that’s still competitive, but slowly balancing as more homes are listed and buyers adjust to steady mortgage rates.
🔮 What’s Next?
Even beyond the “boomer effect,” several forces could drive a new mini-boom:
Interest rates are expected to drift slightly lower, inviting more buyers back into the market.
Millennials and Gen Z are entering peak homebuying years, fueling demand for family-friendly homes and investment properties.
Local growth in Lancaster’s small business and construction sectors continues to draw new residents.
I’m watching three potential paths over the next few years:
Best Case: Rates ease and inventory grows moderately → prices rise 4–6% annually.
Baseline: Rates hover near 6.25% → prices grow 2–3% per year.
Cautious Outlook: Rates stay high → prices flatten, but homes still sell quickly when move-in ready.
💡 Takeaway
Lancaster County remains one of Pennsylvania’s most resilient and desirable markets. Whether you’re considering selling your current home, downsizing, or investing, understanding these shifts early gives you an advantage.
Sandra Burkholder, EXP Realty
Licensed Real Estate Agent since 2000
Serving Lancaster, Chester, Berks, and York County, PA
Connecting you to your dream home and the heart of the community with a professional yet approachable touch.
Not intended to solicit any properties already listed for sale with another real estate agent. If your home is already for sale, then please disregard this message.
